Trade forex

Forex movement to determine fii stance


FDI forex movement to determine fii stance to India remained sluggish, when global FDI flows to EMEs had recovered in 2010-11, despite sound domestic economic performance ahead of global recovery. FDI inflows to India witnessed significant moderation in 2010-11 while other EMEs in Asia and Latin America received large inflows. This had raised concerns in the wake of widening current account deficit in India beyond the perceived sustainable level of 3.

0 per cent of GDP during April-December 2010. This also assumes significance as FDI is generally known to be the most stable component of capital flows needed to finance the current account deficit. This paper has been organised as follows: Section 1 presents trends in global investment flows with particular focus on EMEs and India. Section 2 traces the evolution of India’s FDI policy framework, followed by cross-country experience reflecting on India’s FDI policy vis-à-vis that of select EMEs. Section 3 deals with plausible explanations of relative slowdown in FDI flows to India in 2010-11 and arrives at an econometric evidence using panel estimation.

Widening growth differential across economies and gradual opening up of capital accounts in the emerging world resulted in a steep rise in cross border investment flows during the past two decades. This section briefly presents the recent trends in global capital flows particularly to emerging economies including India. During the period subsequent to dotcom burst, there has been an unprecedented rise in the cross-border flows and this exuberance was sustained until the occurrence of global financial crisis in the year 2008-09. Between 2003 and 2007, global FDI flows grew nearly four -fold and flows to EMEs during this period, grew by about three-fold. From an institutional perspective, FDI by private equity funds declined as their fund raising dropped on the back of investors’ risk aversion and the collapse of the leveraged buyout market in tune with the deterioration in credit market conditions. Improved macroeconomic conditions, particularly in the emerging economies, which boosted corporate profits coupled with better stock market valuations and rising business confidence augured well for global FDI prospects. Source:World Investment Report, 2010 and Global Investment Trends Monitor, UNCTAD.

With the tripling of the FDI flows to EMEs during the pre-crisis period of the 2000s, India also received large FDI inflows in line with its robust domestic economic performance. Policy regime is one of the key factors driving investment flows to a country. Apart from underlying macro fundamentals, ability of a nation to attract foreign investment essentially depends upon its policy regime – whether it promotes or restrains the foreign investment flows. This section undertakes a review of India’s FDI policy framework and makes a comparison of India’s policy vis-à-vis that of select EMEs. There has been a sea change in India’s approach to foreign investment from the early 1990s when it began structural economic reforms encompassing almost all the sectors of the economy. FDI through foreign collaboration was welcomed in the areas of high technology and high priorities to build national capability and discouraged in low technology areas to protect and nurture domestic industries.

A major shift occurred when India embarked upon economic liberalisation and reforms program in 1991 aiming to raise its growth potential and integrating with the world economy. Industrial policy reforms gradually removed restrictions on investment projects and business expansion on the one hand and allowed increased access to foreign technology and funding on the other. Investment proposals falling under the automatic route and matters related to FEMA are dealt with by RBI, while the Government handles investment through approval route and issues that relate to FDI policy per se through its three institutions, viz. FDI under the automatic route does not require any prior approval either by the Government or the Reserve Bank. The investors are only required to notify the concerned regional office of the RBI within 30 days of receipt of inward remittances and file the required documents with that office within 30 days of issuance of shares to foreign investors. Under the approval route, the proposals are considered in a time-bound and transparent manner by the FIPB.